Friday, September 5, 2008

Buying a high for a higher high






I missed the long trade at VWAP as I was buying some stocks for investment ;-).
I dont personally like this trade but serves as a great example for tape entry.
Its all based on the orderflow.
Price fails to make a reversal. Every attempt to sell has been halted by resting bids.
Finally there is a big order to sell (3K)(11:41 bar with chart filtered @ 100 contracts above) that gets absorbed and more important an initiative lifting the offer of 1.5 K and 1K orders (see tape on top). A combination of events that gives you a very high probability entry for a quick trade. Flow with the bigger money.

The ominous resting bids


The chart below illustrates the buying at resting bids that got reloaded @ 30.50-31.25 (10:05 pst). Trade yields a 3 point scale out so far and stop at BE. Notice the increase in volume and sustained bidding. Price is now trying to break above.

Toping for a possible rotation


Nice little weak pullback. Opportunity for a short. Keep in mind. The bigs delta is 20K positive and we have come to a delta neutral overall. There is both covering and and moderate bargain hunting. We are very close to mean and might consolidate through this area. After lunch might bring some decisive direction. Place for a very tight stop personally. If the orderflow continues to be on the buy side, additional covering will bring us inside yesterdays range. Its important to rotate and break through the 30 level. Notice that the G period extended IB and the weakness needs to build for a reversion trade.

Price at VWAP and mean


Price has come up to VWAP with a little buying by commercials.
The 100 contracts filtered chart has turned a +ve delta (7K). This makes it a dangerous selling at VWAP. The general Delta is still about -16K negative. So bigger money is slightly on the buy side (mainly covering). Mean is at 1224. With dynamic mean shoing a little shift upwards. So far it seems we might balance.