Wednesday, August 27, 2008

How big is the timeframe universe

The buying at the 60s should not be confused as a signal for a bull market. In fact the very long timeframe, long, intermediate and short price trends are all down (intermediate/short term value is headed up slightly - see monthly and weekly profile). We do have a price rejection/support level in the short timeframe (although it has become a little porous after yesterdays action). And this support is provided by the participants who are outside the balance area of 1290s to 1260s. At the edges they play depending on their inventory. Now are they the same players every time- no. Are they all long terms - no. Will they bail when the level is broke - yes and no. Will they scale in if get to the 30s - some definitely yes. Some may be short and cover. Some may not until they find another attractive level. In the 30s we will encounter a new set of players some of the old and some new. So the timeframe universe is like a video game where advancing to a new level brings new players and new foes. The short time frame trend is flat lining. But whether its the 1200s, 1230s, or the 1260s the first embryonic conception of a market turn appears in the undercurrents just like so. And while the level is not significant as the turning point, it is the behavior of the market that has transformed in the last several weeks. Whether it will turn at the current level or not the is really not predictable and nobody really knows. What is predictable is that the journey will take us through many mini-balances like last week and this week. It is within those balances is where we play. An awareness of the boundaries and potential behavior there is what is paramount for the day traders to keep ourselves from being sucked out into thin space and our accounts with it. Remember we do not have intermediate and long term initiative buying quite yet which will bring us the volume and perhaps out of the balance. The same thing can be said of the sellers .

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